{"id":8226,"date":"2024-04-08T10:15:03","date_gmt":"2024-04-08T10:15:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/edisongold.com\/central-bank-demand-is-massive-but-institutions-retail-and-rate-cuts-will-push-gold-rally-even-further-ubp\/"},"modified":"2024-04-08T10:16:47","modified_gmt":"2024-04-08T10:16:47","slug":"central-bank-demand-is-massive-but-institutions-retail-and-rate-cuts-will-push-gold-rally-even-further-ubp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/edisongold.com\/en\/central-bank-demand-is-massive-but-institutions-retail-and-rate-cuts-will-push-gold-rally-even-further-ubp\/","title":{"rendered":"Central bank demand is massive, but institutions, retail, and rate cuts will push gold rally even further \u2013 UBP"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 fusion-flex-container has-pattern-background has-mask-background nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;--awb-flex-wrap:wrap;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row fusion-flex-align-items-flex-start fusion-flex-content-wrap\" style=\"max-width:1996.8px;margin-left: calc(-4% \/ 2 );margin-right: calc(-4% \/ 2 );\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-0 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-1\"><p>Central bank purchases continue to push gold prices to new highs, but the surge in interest from investors and the rate cuts on the horizon mean the rally isn\u2019t overdone, according to a new report from Geneva-based wealth management firm Union Bancaire Priv\u00e9e (UBP).<\/p>\n<p>The analysts noted that there were several drivers behind the powerful rally last month, which took gold to a string of all-time highs, most recently well above $2,200 per ounce.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFirst, inflows towards the financial gold market (XAU\/USD) surged, and there was a notable increase in long futures positioning, suggesting that institutional investors had increased their exposures towards the yellow metal,\u201d they wrote. \u201cSecond, central banks continued to aggressively purchase physical gold and the latest data show heavy purchases since the beginning of the year of around 40 tonnes per month.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>UBP believes these central bank purchases are having \u201ca material impact on the market,\u201d noting that the World Gold Council believes 15% of gold\u2019s price is due to ongoing central bank buying. \u201cThis trend is likely to continue over the coming months and years, as central banks move to increase their gold reserves,\u201d they said.<\/p>\n<p>The third factor is the impact of retail investors increasing their stakes in gold ETFs. They pointed out that while most of this happened after the lion\u2019s share of gold\u2019s gains, it still bodes well for gold prices going forward. \u201cThis widening of the investor base implies that this move has further to run,\u201d they wrote. \u201cWe note that retail investors remain underinvested compared with historical averages.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Central banks will also begin driving gold demand higher through cuts to their benchmark interest rates, which are expected to begin in the coming months. \u201cThe latest indications are that central banks will have a front-loaded rate-cutting cycle, meaning that nominal rates will decline substantially this year,\u201d they said. \u201cThe coincidental and rapid decline in global inflation dynamics, combined with a front-loaded rate-cutting cycle from many of the major central banks, is a highly constructive development for gold. This explains the rapid upward move to levels above USD 2,200 per oz.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Looking ahead at the second half of 2024, UBP analysts have identified two additional factors which could drive gold higher still. \u201cFirst, the US presidential election campaigns will likely serve to highlight excessive debt levels in the US, and increasing concerns about US fiscal sustainability will be beneficial for gold in our view,\u201d they wrote. \u201cSecond, we think that geopolitical risks will remain elevated and any worsening in relations between the major powers will give an upside skew to gold prices.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The only reservations they have about gold\u2019s potential for further gains are related to the speed and scale of gold\u2019s move to date. \u201c[Gold] currently trades with an enormous premium to ten-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yields, which we view as a proxy for forward-looking real interest rates,\u201d they said. \u201cThis large premium could contract if TIPS yields fall over the coming months, which is feasible if the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates. This means that forthcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) prints in the US will be highly important. If CPI readings show some moderation on a monthly basis, we can expect that gold will trade at or slightly higher than current levels.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOverall, we maintain a constructive stance on gold, and any dip below levels of around USD 2,100 per oz is a strong buying opportunity in our view,\u201d they wrote. \u201cOver the longer term, a move towards levels of around USD 2,300 per oz is feasible.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Spot gold last traded at $2,234.94 per ounce at the time of writing, up 0.07% on the day but only $30 below last week\u2019s all-time high.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8219,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8226","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.8 - 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